The Astounding Growth of Super Smash Bros Melee

I'm no statistician, but through the shear force of organizing numbers, I do like to keep an eye on trends, especially with respect to growth. Let's take a look together, shall we?

Here is a very simple chart that displays SSBM Tournament growth as peak number of entrants by year:

(Admittedly this doubles as a chart measuring Evo's growth 2013-Present)

Takeaways from this chart pretty much center around, "holy bananas, Melee is growing quickly."

Around 2014 I exclaimed that Melee was "experiencing a renaissance," but I'm not sure that term is adequate in 2016. Alternatively, Smashers have adopted the term "platinum age" to describe the post-documentary era ... but looking at this growth chart, do you really think that's fair? I don't. I look at this chart and I see 2004-2012 as pre-history. 

And the growth isn't just among the biggest (read: Evo) yearly events, it's present across the board. Here are few slightly outdated but wholly jaw-dropping examples from my favorite statistician JuggleGuy:

• 2015 saw more 300+ entrant SSBM events than all of 2001-2014 combined
• There were more 100+ entrant SSBM events on 1/24/15 than during the entire year of 2008
• In 2014 we saw 18 straight weekends of 100+ entrant SSBM events. The previous record was 3.

That's not an explosion of growth, that's a metamorphosis. And this change is forcing us to confront a whole slew of issues we're only marginally equipped to handle, including monetizing, burnout, and international rankings. But let's not digress.

Here's a question: when will this explosion end? Growth like this isn't sustainable - it has to taper off somewhere - but there really isn't data available to predict that. This growth is due less to existing Smashers being mobilized, and more to the introduction of hundreds of new Smashers every year.

Let's take a look at a few annual tournaments that give us data over 2013-2016: (I made a loose projection for TBH6 which is in Oct) Takeaways:

• Due largely to the stellar reputation of its tournament staff, TBH grew >100% across each the last two years. But if that same proportion of growth continued, 2016 would see over 3,000 entrants. This is improbable, as a Smash-only tournament lunging ahead of Evo this year is extremely unlikely (though it will definitely happen one day). I've instead projected a conservative growth of 50%, which would still be the 2nd biggest Melee turnout in history.
• After a massive jump from 2014 to 2015, Evo 2016 Melee saw the smallest amount of growth yet. Is this evidence of growth tapering? Are there only so many Smashers to be attracted? Or could it instead indicate a growing taste for events run by Smashers, for Smashers, as those events evolve? TBH6 numbers (as well as those from other massive fan-run events like SSC16 and G3) will help answer that question.
• With a growth of -83% in 2016, the downgrade of Apex from supermajor to regional in one year represents the first time the Melee community has collectively turned away from an event. This communicates a great deal to the historian, because it is evidence of the novelty that is a tournaments surplus.

In conclusion, it's a good time to be a Smasher. Smash 64, Melee, and Wii U will each see their biggest tournament ever this year, and will almost certainly repeat the process next year. Heck, even Brawl is getting some attention.

So when Twitter drama has me down, or I'm stressed out by the demands of organizing Super Smash Con, I try to remind myself that this chart exists. I hope it makes you happy, too. Because while happiness is overrated, we ought to take it where we can get it :-)